Drake equation got SWAGGER = Scientific Wild-Ass Guessing Gets Every Result
— Patrick M. Len (@Patrick_M_Len) August 25, 2012#astro101#astroed
Showing posts with label Drake equation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Drake equation. Show all posts
20120826
Tweet: Drake equation
20090407
Found physics: Speculative Enceladus visualizations
20090403068http://www.flickr.com/photos/waiferx/3421648711/
Originally uploaded by Waifer X
"Surface of Enceladus (Speculative)" (hoarfrost on a car trunk, Atascadero, CA). Photo by Cuesta College Physical Sciences Division instruction Dr. Patrick M. Len.
20090404075http://www.flickr.com/photos/waiferx/3421648887/
Originally uploaded by Waifer X
"Enceladan Life (Speculative)" (live crab at Pier 46 seafood market, Templeton, CA). Photo by Cuesta College Physical Sciences Division instruction Dr. Patrick M. Len.
20080601
Astronomy clicker question: Drake equation anti-pessimists
Astronomy 10, Spring Semester 2008
Cuesta College, San Luis Obispo, CA
Astronomy 10 learning goal F.2
Students were asked the following clicker question (Classroom Performance System, einstruction.com) in the middle of their learning cycle.
[0.3 points.] The Drake equation may predict that the Milky Way has only one advanced technological civilization (us). Which argument against this extremely pessimistic result do you consider most valid?
(A) Absence of evidence (of the existence of other advanced technological civilizations) is not evidence of their absence.
(B) It is not very likely we are that special.
(C) Given the vast number of stars in the Milky Way, over a vast amount of time, a very small probability that an advanced technological civilization would arise can result in a sizeable number.
(D) (More than one of the above arguments.)
Correct answer: (none; opinion only)
Each of these arguments was explained to the class before this question was asked. Item (A) is the observation that a null result cannot disprove a hypothesis; (B) is the Mediocrity Principle ("Copernicanism"); and (C) is the Scale Argument ("playing the odds").
Student responses
Section 4160
(A) : 11 students
(B) : 3 students
(C) : 15 students
(D) : 3 students
Section 5166
(A) : 11 students
(B) : 8 students
(C) : 23 students
(D) : 3 students
Cuesta College, San Luis Obispo, CA
Astronomy 10 learning goal F.2
Students were asked the following clicker question (Classroom Performance System, einstruction.com) in the middle of their learning cycle.
[0.3 points.] The Drake equation may predict that the Milky Way has only one advanced technological civilization (us). Which argument against this extremely pessimistic result do you consider most valid?
(A) Absence of evidence (of the existence of other advanced technological civilizations) is not evidence of their absence.
(B) It is not very likely we are that special.
(C) Given the vast number of stars in the Milky Way, over a vast amount of time, a very small probability that an advanced technological civilization would arise can result in a sizeable number.
(D) (More than one of the above arguments.)
Correct answer: (none; opinion only)
Each of these arguments was explained to the class before this question was asked. Item (A) is the observation that a null result cannot disprove a hypothesis; (B) is the Mediocrity Principle ("Copernicanism"); and (C) is the Scale Argument ("playing the odds").
Student responses
Section 4160
(A) : 11 students
(B) : 3 students
(C) : 15 students
(D) : 3 students
Section 5166
(A) : 11 students
(B) : 8 students
(C) : 23 students
(D) : 3 students
20080531
Astronomy clicker question: Drake equation anti-optimists
Astronomy 10, Spring Semester 2008
Cuesta College, San Luis Obispo, CA
Astronomy 10 learning goal F.2
Students were asked the following clicker question (Classroom Performance System, einstruction.com) in the middle of their learning cycle.
[0.3 points.] The Drake equation may predict that the Milky Way has many advanced technological civilizations. Which argument against this extremely optimistic result do you consider most valid?
(A) If there are supposed to be so many of them, then why aren't they here (yet)?
(B) Our advanced technological civilization on Earth arose due to an extraordinary number of highly unlikely coincidences and conditions.
(C) Since are no simple explanations as to why there would be zero contact from many other advanced technological civilizations (if they do exist), they do not exist.
(D) (More than one of the above arguments.)
Correct answer: (none; opinion only)
Each of these arguments was explained to the class before this question was asked. Item (A) is Fermi's Paradox; (B) is the Rare Earth Hypothesis; (C) is Occam's Razor (which is related to Fermi's Paradox). Students were instructed to choose the argument they considered the most valid, and only to select (D) if they were willing to talk about which of these arguments they considered equally valid.
Student responses
Section 4160
(A) : 5 students
(B) : 23 students
(C) : 5 students
(D) : 0 students
Section 5166
(A) : 4 students
(B) : 27 students
(C) : 12 students
(D) : 6 students
Cuesta College, San Luis Obispo, CA
Astronomy 10 learning goal F.2
Students were asked the following clicker question (Classroom Performance System, einstruction.com) in the middle of their learning cycle.
[0.3 points.] The Drake equation may predict that the Milky Way has many advanced technological civilizations. Which argument against this extremely optimistic result do you consider most valid?
(A) If there are supposed to be so many of them, then why aren't they here (yet)?
(B) Our advanced technological civilization on Earth arose due to an extraordinary number of highly unlikely coincidences and conditions.
(C) Since are no simple explanations as to why there would be zero contact from many other advanced technological civilizations (if they do exist), they do not exist.
(D) (More than one of the above arguments.)
Correct answer: (none; opinion only)
Each of these arguments was explained to the class before this question was asked. Item (A) is Fermi's Paradox; (B) is the Rare Earth Hypothesis; (C) is Occam's Razor (which is related to Fermi's Paradox). Students were instructed to choose the argument they considered the most valid, and only to select (D) if they were willing to talk about which of these arguments they considered equally valid.
Student responses
Section 4160
(A) : 5 students
(B) : 23 students
(C) : 5 students
(D) : 0 students
Section 5166
(A) : 4 students
(B) : 27 students
(C) : 12 students
(D) : 6 students
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